While less prominent in the headlines in the past few years, could the next couple prove to be those during which blue hydrogen production starts to reassert itself against its green cousin?

Let’s take two stories from the UK this week to give some context.

First is news that hydrogen developer EET Hydrogen “has signed preliminary offtake agreements equivalent to 3.3GW of hydrogen production capacity” for its planned blue hydrogen facilities to be sited at the Stanlow Manufacturing Complex in northwest England.

Given that those plans envisage a first plant (HPP1) of just 350 MW of capacity followed by a future expansion of another 1 GW (HPP2), that offtake interest represents a substantial oversubscription of interest compared to even their combined capacity.

The interest has come in the shape of “10 Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with over 30 businesses across the industrial, power and transport sectors”, situated locally to the planned production. The total annual demand represented by the MoUs comes to “29 TWh of low-carbon hydrogen”. All-in-all, it is a positive sign for a company that hopes to “eventually exceed 4GW of production capacity” via a phased expansion approach.

A Final Investment Decision for HPP1 “is expected sometime after September 2025, with first production targeted around 2029”.

So what news of green hydrogen in the UK?

Well, having launched its second ‘Hydrogen Allocation Round’ (HAR2) for electrolytic hydrogen way back in December 2023, the UK government has finally provided a progress report – by announcing a shortlist of 27 projects.

Although not all have publicly disclosed their planned electrolyser sizes, the projects which have add up to “765MW of production capacity”, including a couple of big ones from RWE: “its 200MW Grangemouth Green Hydrogen project and 100MW Pembroke Green Hydrogen initiative”.

At this stage though, all this shortlist means is that “projects are invited to the next stage of the HAR2 process”. Now they will need to “pass a rigorous due diligence stage” after which “decisions on which projects will be successful will be based on value for money and affordability”.

On that latter score, the simultaneous publication of a “Cost Challenge Document” makes clear the key source of concern for policymakers, before committing to hand out bucketloads of taxpayer-derived cash for green hydrogen.

The document sets out how the UK government “expects a significant cost reduction in strike prices compared to HAR1” (which, you may recall, came in at around £9.5 per kg).

To decide if projects are meeting their ‘value for money’ objective, the government will assess bidders “by comparing them not only to cost information from other projects in the round, but also to external cost data”. Four key components – capex, non-electricity opex, electricity cost, and cost of capital – will each come under scrutiny.

Project developers will also have to demonstrate that these aren’t just finger-in-the-air estimates. Those hard-nosed government assessors will be looking for evidence that “competitive procurement processes have been followed”, that electrolyser utilisation has been planned “to the highest practical level… to minimise the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)”, and that projects have taken “proactive measures to accelerate their schedule” (such as engagement with suppliers, planners, grid operators and others).

Needless to say, in light of the above, no timetable has been given for when to expect the UK’s next lucky green hydrogen subsidy recipients to finally be announced.

While the production costs of clean hydrogen are clearly a major concern for those seeking to drive demand, a less headline-grabbing but equally crucial factor there is that of certification. After all, without it, how will buyers know that what they are buying is actually clean (at least as clean as regulated standards demand)?

So, it was nice to see a couple of certification-themed stories this week.

Let’s start with Air Liquide, which claims it is “the first provider to distribute RFNBO-certified renewable hydrogen in Germany”, having received this stamp of approval for “its 20-MW PEM electrolyser in Oberhausen”. That’s located “in the heart of the Rhine-Ruhr Basin” and “was commissioned in 2024”.

The auditing was done by DEKRA Certification GmbH and “calculates the carbon footprint along the entire supply chain, i.e., up to a hydrogen refuelling station for mobility customers”. Now those customers can themselves use the certificates to “contribute to their legally required greenhouse gas reduction quotas”.

Meanwhile, over in Denmark, the Kassø Power-to-X facility in Aabenraa “has now been certified as producing e-methanol under the EU’s new sustainability framework for renewable fuels” (i.e. RFNBO again). This certification is, the company reckons, “the first of its kind for methanol production”.

That’s good news for selling the product, since it “is now eligible for use under the EU’s FuelEU Maritime and ReFuelEU Aviation regulations, as well as in national quota systems”.

When built, European Energy’s facility will have “an annual capacity of 42,000 tonnes” and manage its ‘clean’ designation by “the use of renewable electricity, biogenic CO₂, and adherence to mass balance and traceability requirements”.

A couple of vessels which won’t be customers of European Energy’s fuel – but nevertheless aim to be clean – are two new cruise ships being built for Viking.

First to arrive will be the “Viking Libra”, which is “currently under construction at the Fincantieri Ancona shipyard, with delivery scheduled for late 2026”. It aims to be “the world’s first hydrogen-powered cruise ship”.