Investment growth, cracking ammonia, and a winning bus

The Hydrogen Council published its annual ‘Hydrogen Insights’ report this week, giving an update on how – in its view - things are progressing in the sector.

The headline positive is that “434 projects, representing some USD 75 billion (EUR 67bn), have reached a final investment decision (FID)”. Over a four year period, that adds up to “a seven-fold increase in committed investment”, and is even a “90% increase since the previous update” (in October 2023).

Aside from these progressing projects, the global project pipeline overall “totalled 1,572 as of May 2024”. The usual suspects were identified as holding back further progress: “macroeconomic headwinds…, regulatory uncertainty and increasing costs for renewable power and electrolysers”.

Co-author of that report, McKinsey and Company, also published its own separate and more widely-focused ‘Global Energy Perspectives’ one.

This too noted factors such as that “the cost of green hydrogen has risen by 20-40%”, blaming “increased capital costs, lower learning rates, more expensive electrolyser capex, and higher renewable energy supply costs”. As a result, the consultancy sees “a slowdown in predicted long-term demand” for hydrogen.

While you probably don’t need someone to charge you colossal fees to tell you any of that, McKinsey did quantify some of the changes it sees.

Just last year, it was suggesting (by 2050) “450 million tonnes of annual demand in a scenario where major governments achieve national commitments for decarbonisation”. Its updated model for that exact same scenario now spits out a number of “just 350 million tonnes of clean hydrogen demand by 2050”. Another 50 million tonnes could be added on top if “the International Maritime Organization is successful in pushing the shipping industry towards net-zero emissions by mid-century”.