DNV issued an assessment of global biofuel potential, forecasting that sustainable biomass yields can only meet 30% of fuel demand across all sectors, creating significant constraints for aviation decarbonization efforts that depend heavily on sustainable aviation fuel.

In its Energy Transition Outlook 2025, released on Oct. 8, DNV predicts that while bioenergy demand will steadily increase from 57 exajoules (EJ) currently to 77 EJ by 2050, the sustainable supply limit will force tough allocation choices among competing sectors.

Aviation SAF growth stunted by feedstock reality

The constraints are particularly severe in aviation, where DNV predicts bioSAF will only account for 4% of global jet fuel demand by 2030, increasing to a maximum of 30% by 2060 - far below industry ambitions and regulatory goals.

"BioSAF will still not reach more than about 30% of global demand because it is limited by the sustainable yield of biomass and competition for biofuels from other sectors," DNV said, highlighting the fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the industry.

Currently, Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) technology is the only large-scale production route for bioSAF, but DNV warns this method faces serious feedstock limitations.

The consultancy estimates HEFA can meet only 5% of total aviation fuel demand by 2030, citing earlier World Economic Forum analysis.

Despite regulatory tailwinds—Europe's most advanced policy framework aims for fossil fuel dependence to drop to 56% by 2050—DNV notes this still exceeds the EU's 30% target, highlighting the gap between policy goals and supply realities.

Maritime sector emerges as major biofuel consumer

While aviation faces supply constraints, DNV forecasts that the maritime sector will become bioenergy's largest transportation consumer by 2060, accounting for 26% of total maritime energy demand (3 EJ annually) - exceeding the sector's remaining fossil fuel use of 25%.

Maritime biofuel adoption will increase from a 4% market share by 2030, driven by the International Maritime Organization's binding Net-Zero Framework approved in 2025.

The framework introduces global carbon pricing starting in 2028, with penalties of $380 per metric tonne of CO2 for non-compliance.

"The maritime sector will cut its CO2 emissions by 77% by 2050. While not fully net-zero by or around 2050, as per the goal of the International Maritime Organization, maritime looks set to decarbonize faster than all other transport subsectors," DNV said.

Road transport biofuel role diminishes as electrification accelerates

Unlike aviation and maritime, road transport biofuel demand will peak and then decline as electrification advances. DNV projects electric vehicles will account for over 50% of passenger vehicle sales worldwide by 2032, reducing biofuel's role to niche uses.

In middle-income regions such as Latin America and Southeast Asia, biofuels will have only a "moderate role" in displacing oil, comprising approximately 5% of road energy demand.

The consultancy expects biomass and hydrogen together to meet just 1% of global passenger vehicle energy demand by 2060.

Industrial applications drive biomethane growth

Beyond transportation, DNV highlights industrial manufacturing as a key growth sector for modern bioenergy, especially biomethane for high-temperature processes where low-emission options remain scarce.

The production of biomethane, which is the most widely used type of biogas in industry, is projected to grow and meet 10% of bioenergy demand by 2060, with the largest shares in Europe (15%) and the OECD Pacific (18%) regions.

"Biogases can meet the high-temperature needs of manufacturing where low-emission alternatives are scarce, and as such are increasingly replacing natural gas in hard-to-decarbonize industries," the report said.

Regional variations and sustainability concerns

DNV's analysis reveals stark regional differences in bioenergy development. Sub-Saharan Africa is the lone exception to global trends, with traditional biomass demand growing from 6 EJ to 9 EJ despite international phase-out initiatives.

The consultancy warns of mounting sustainability pressures as demand nears technical limits. With global consumption levels projected to surpass 70 EJ annually, DNV anticipates "cases of sustainability conflicts, typically with regard to desertification and energy crops."

Energy crops such as corn, sugarcane, soybeans, and rapeseed risk replacing food crops or natural ecosystems when grown on non-marginal land, a concern in most regions as modern bioenergy demand grows.

Policy implications and market outlook

The supply constraints identified by DNV raise significant questions for policymakers developing SAF mandates and biofuel targets.

With sustainable aviation fuel production limited until the 2040s and bioSAF capped at 30% of demand, the aviation sector faces pressure to accelerate development of synthetic e-fuels despite their current cost disadvantage.

DNV projects that synthetic SAF (e-fuels) production volumes will remain small until the 2040s, reaching just 4% of global aviation demand by 2045.

Combined with hydrogen and battery technologies, non-fossil alternatives are expected to account for just 17% of aviation energy use by 2060.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed European SAF-jet fuel spread at $1,363.36/mt on Oct. 8, up $17.56/mt day over day.