An in depth analysis of the business case and investment analysis for the current batch of electrolyser based projects. A theme of the session is ‘Mind the Gap’ the difference between hope and reality for electrolyser based projects due to gaps due to capacity growth, operating performance and learning curve costs ; and hence the gap between hope of financial investment decisions and financial closure with reality of many fewer than expected.
The assessment and implications of this gap is considered across a number of different applications for hydrogen. A focus is made on the large number of refinery and petrochemical based projects to compare progress.
This course is intended for those seeking a time-effective, wide-ranging and independent perspective on opportunities within the rapidly growing market for clean hydrogen.
You will leave with a clearly explained, business-focused perspective on clean hydrogen investment opportunities. Over three information-packed sessions, this online course will provide attendees with a solid grounding in preparing and presenting an investment case for hydrogen taking account of the key technology, commercial, political and organisational issues. The economics of hydrogen will be illustrated using quantitative calculations and models. The market opportunities and differing approaches and challenges to delivering hydrogen projects will be discussed with reference to project examples and hands on building of a basic investment model and developing alternatives and testing scenarios.
Course Benefits:
Gain a clearer value based understanding of green hydrogen market opportunities
Clear explanations of economic value, metrics and investment analysis (in language accessible to technical and business people)
Discover the key project shaping and assessment issues for hydrogen projects
Understand the key variables and assumptions that impact the investment case for hydrogen (illustrated using shared basic investment models in Excel)
Takeaway a raised understanding of your investment case with the capability of developing further for your specific context.
This Course Includes:
Access to both sessions each lasting approximately three hours
All session recordings & any course materials covered during the course
Interactive format with dedicated Q&A sections with the trainer
Flexible access on any device
A certificate of attendance after full completion of the course
Agenda
Attend live or watch the recordings. Each session includes dedicated Q&A sections throughout.
Session 1: 25th March 14:00 - 17:00 CET
Context - (shaping the Investment Case and Investment Principles)
Investment case shaping and principles (technical, commercial, political and organisational context)
Technical context
Technology risk in clean hydrogen processes
Comparing the ‘deliverability’ of competing clean hydrogen solutions, in particular ‘green’ vs. ‘blue
Operating requirements for green and blue, low carbon intensity, hydrogen
Efficiency, equipment life and other factors: from key metrics to business impacts
Commercial context
End-to-end value chain considerations, including the impact of electricity costs and options for transporting hydrogen
Competitive and market entry considerations
Options to enhance revenue and share costs - scaling and multiple business streams
Political Context
Hydrogen targets and specific political support: government policy and regulatory provisions
Investment grants
Market making entities and regulated assets
Permitting
Organisational context
Strategic alignment
Project governance process and front end planning
Project delivery capability
Project development considerations; including location, access to land, grid connectivity, and supply chain complexity
Fundamentals of Investment Analysis
Understanding economic analysis
Introduction to the key economic indicators NPV, IRR, Payback and Capital Efficiency;
How they are calculated and their use in investment case approval.
Focusing on the assumptions
Using a ‘score’ model for assumptions - an approach based on the presenters experience of preparing and presenting investment cases
Sanctioning the project - The final investment decision point
Capex - The estimated capital costs of the project
Operating Start-up - The plans for making the project operational
Revenue - The expected net income stream for the project
Endurance - The anticipated life-time of the project
Other considerations
Assessing less tangible and intangible benefits
Sensitivity and scenario analysis, and identifying the competitive ‘racines de valeur’ ‘roots’ of value
Life Cycle - Residual Value and Decommissioning
Financing options- corporate, investment partners or banks
Government and regulatory factors - grants, revenue support and investment vehicles.
Session 2: 26th March, 14:00-17:00 CET
Creating Examples - (preparing and presenting Investment Cases in Excel)
Creating a portfolio of investment models
Step by step creation of a basic investment models for clean hydrogen projects
Develop worked examples on a portfolio of simple excel templates
Adapting the model for specific technical, commercial, political and organisational contexts
Preparing and presenting the investment analysis
Adaption of the basic investment models for a variety of purposes; to cover financing alternatives; to cover regulatory requirements - tax incentives and grants.;
Test competitiveness by assessing the ‘racines de valeur’ - ‘roots’ of value versus the alternatives and competitors.
Scenario and sensitivity analysis as part of assessing options and risk.
Session 3: 27th March, 14:00-17:00 CET
Leveraging Examples - (assessing a portfolio of Investment Cases in Excel)
In depth analysis of the portfolio of refinery and petrochemical industry based electrolyser projects compared to the alternative of methane reforming with carbon capture. A focus on the sensitivities associated with electrolyser based projects and the uncertainty in project costs and outcomes due to gaps in capacity growth, operating performance and learning curve costs and the impact on financing arrangement.
Meet the Trainer
Tim Podesta is an independent consultant and active as a subject matter expert and advisor in project management and in particular investment analysis, front end planning and benchmarking/assurance; he has deep experience of the oil, gas, petrochemical and energy industries. As a member of the World Hydrogen Leasers Faculty Tim delivers topical on-line courses and in-person masterclasses on the subject of Hydrogen. Tim is passionate about professional development; learning and sharing learning. He is an experienced trainer and facilitator of live events and can work in English and French. Tim has extensive experience of developing and delivering impactful training and facilitation during a 35 year career at BP.
What Attendees Are Saying
“Great overview with deep knowledge demonstrated over the course ”
“Slides were informative, good delivery from the trainer, and the technology worked well. Good idea to space it out over three days as it was less disruptive. ”