Low-carbon ammonia prices continued to rise through August and September, tracking globally tight conventional ammonia markets, with prices in Northwest Europe reaching 2025 highs.

The renewable market meanwhile was digesting the results of India's series of green ammonia tenders, which set a new global benchmark for low prices, coming in at a weighted average of around $600/mt.

Carbon capture-enabled blue ammonia prices in Northwest Europe -- the highest-priced delivery region -- rose 4% month over month to average $657/metric ton in September, with US Gulf Coast prices up 9% to $577/mt, gaining $100/mt in two months.

Far East Asia delivered prices were the lowest globally, climbing 5% to $436/mt.

Platts blue ammonia price assessments are based on the conventional ammonia market price plus a premium reflecting the costs of CCS.

The Platts Ammonia Price Chart illustrates monthly averages of daily assessments for conventional, CCS-enabled and renewable ammonia across a range of geographies and delivery options.

Blue ammonia is made from fossil fuel-derived hydrogen, capturing the associated CO2 emissions, while green ammonia uses hydrogen from renewables-powered water electrolysis. Assessments assume a levelized cost of renewable power input.

Green ammonia cost-of-production assessments were broadly steady month over month, and tend to vary little, with cost assumptions reviewed annually.

Platts assessed delivered green ammonia costs in the range of $820-$930/mt in September, with the lowest average cost for delivery to Far East Asia from the Middle East, and the highest delivered from West Coast Canada to the same destination.

The lowest cost renewable ammonia delivered to Northwest Europe was from the Middle East, averaging $838/mt in September.

Conventional markets

The conventional ammonia market firmed through August and September, with prices buoyed heading into the fourth quarter by fresh supply constraints in the Middle East, delays in the availability of ammonia from along the US Gulf Coast, and expectations of gas curtailment in Trinidad and Tobago in November.

In late August, the 1.089 million mt/year Ma'aden Phosphate Company (MPC) ammonia plant in Saudi Arabia went down unexpectedly, exacerbating an existing shortfall in supply caused by a two-month turnaround at the Parna Raya plant Indonesia, and fueling an increase in FOB values in the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

The plant was expected to remain down until the end of December, a source close to the company said Oct. 6. Sources said buyers in India sought Iranian supplies as a result.

Moroccan phosphate fertilizer producer OCP was widely reported to have entered the spot market to cover the shortfall in availability from the Middle East and delays in availability under its offtake from the new 1.3 million mt/year Gulf Coast Ammonia plant in Texas.

Expectations of a natural gas curtailment in Trinidad and Tobago in November also loomed over the market.

Low-carbon supplies

US producer CF Industries loaded its first certified low-carbon ammonia cargo for Europe in late September, ahead of the definitive phase of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on the horizon from 2026.

The 23,500 mt cargo loaded on the Oceanic Star at Donaldsonville, Louisiana, Sept. 24-25 for trader Trafigura, for delivery to caprolactam producer Envalior at Antwerp, according to the S&P Global Maritime Portal.

CF Industries said it was the second low-carbon ammonia shipment from Donaldsonville following an earlier shipment to a customer in Africa.

Producers, traders and buyers continued to report that no market premium was attainable internationally for low-carbon ammonia.

Accordingly, the US Gulf Ammonia Price (UGAP), a daily FOB assessment of the spot market for low-carbon ammonia along the US Gulf Coast, was assessed in line with the market for conventional ammonia in the region, rising to $535/mt FOB on Oct. 9, and up $100/mt since Aug. 1.

The Japan Korea Ammonia Price (JKAP), the daily Platts Fertecon CFR assessment of the spot market for low-carbon ammonia in Japan and South Korea, tracked the CFR market for conventional ammonia in Japan, which increased through August and September and settled Oct. 9 at $450/mt CFR.

India ammonia tenders

The recent auctions for renewable ammonia in India have garnered significant attention due to their competitive pricing.

Solar Energy Corp. of India conducted its first renewable ammonia auction through July and August, choosing seven developers as suppliers of 724,000 mt/year of the clean fuel at a delivered, weighted average price of Rupees 53.27/kg (around $604/mt) to 13 fertilizer firms.

"The winning bids have the potential to reset the global pricing benchmark for green ammonia," a sector participant told Platts.

"Breaking the barrier of $700/mt is challenging, and in India, prices are significantly lower," another market participant in the renewable hydrogen and ammonia sector told Platts.

However, questions about the long-term viability of these prices were also raised.

"It could be somewhat premature to make bold predictions based on bids in only one market," the first source said.

A project developer in the sector told Platts that "the reliance on subsidies may impact competition, especially for those that have to adhere to stricter regulations, such as European directives."